PM and Premier Dalton Mcguinty announce loans to support the restructuring of Chrysler (Conservative Party of Canada)
April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under Conservative Blogs
Will preserve Canada’s share of North American production and help protect jobs
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Explore : Canada, Dalton McGuinty, Ontario, Parties, Politics
Joint statement by President Obama and Prime Minister Harper on United States-Canada support for Chrysler LLC (Conservative Party of Canada)
April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under Conservative Blogs
The Governments of the United States and Canada, have reviewed and approved the restructuring plans of Chrysler LLC and its subsidiaries, including Chrysler Canada Inc.
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Explore : Canada, Parties, Politics
In and out in Court (Morton’s Musings)
April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under Conservative Blogs
In-and-out case might finally go to court Good reason for the Conservatives to try to avoid a fall election By Glen McGregor , The Ottawa Citizen April 28, 2009 The Conservative Party’s legal action against Elections Canada could finally be heard in court this summer after two years of legal wrangling over advertising purchases in the 2006 campaign. Elections…
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In and out in Court (Morton’s Musings)
Statement by the Prime Minister of Canada on the National Day of Mourning for Persons Killed or Injured in the Workplace (Conservative Party of Canada)
April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under Conservative Blogs
Prime Minister Stephen Harper issued the following statement today on the National Day of Mourning for Persons Killed or Injured in the Workplace:
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Explore : Canada, Parties, Politics, Prime Minister, Stephen Harper
In and Out scandal is in again (A BCer in Toronto)
April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under Conservative Blogs
In case you’ve fogotten, the Conservative Party are still in court with Elections Canada, trying to squeeze more money out of the taxpayers they’re not entitled to, as part of the In and Out scandal . According to CP, Elections Canada has filed its final argument in the case with the court , an argument CP calls “hard-hitting” that provides morre details on In and Out,…
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Explore : Canada, Parties, Politics
In and Out scandal is in again (A BCer in Toronto)
Projections of CO2, including ocean chemistry, and methane in a publicly understandable manner.
April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under Green Party Blogs
There are three different scenarios that i consider here. The do nothing approach, much akin to the Harper approach of 20% below 2006 levels by 2020 and convince California not to change the economic climate towards supporting Earths climate and its sustainability; the 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 being adopted possibly by bill c311 and possibly by copenhagen in October; thirdly i consider the case where we try to get back to 350 ppm levels of CO2 at ground level by 2050 or move in that direction, perhaps reaching it by 2070.
The three excel files that show these options are in the following downloadable zip files:
http://richardbelshaw.greenparty.ca/oceanconchdonothing2009.zip
http://richardbelshaw.greenparty.ca/oceanconchbillc311.zip
http://richardbelshaw.greenparty.ca/oceanconch350.zip
The summary sections in the top left are relatively self explanatory to anyone who is reasonably adept with spreadsheets or numbers and ratios and trends.
The summary sections are in the top left and you can freely compare all three scenarios.
I will make some highlight comparisons here.
James Hansen who provoked the beginning of http://www.350.org by Bill McKibbon, whose aims i generally support though i am sceptical of some of there rhetoric and the ability of the world to adapt sufficiently with low tech to achieve the aim of 350 ppm of CO2 at sea level, though i dearly wish we will move towards that direction but feel we will need high tech, like Ted Sargents nanotechnology and Richard Nebels/Robert Bussards Polywell Fusion design using Boron or Lithium and no radioactivity from scattered excess neutrons like at ITER and the tokamuk design purporting to use Tritium/Deuterium to achieve Helium by products through a program that is underfunded and unrealistic and radioactive. I prefer to think about Pickens wind farm attempt or perhaps even temporarily traditional uranium fission (horror of horrors…) instead of coal, oil, gas (in that order) especially in the wake of peak oil.
Highlights….
1) James Hansen has claimed that … from supercomputer models at Goddard Climate Centre that no public person can be allowed to really look at or participate in unless they are a member of the scientific elite, that ocean acidification will occur around 450 ppm of CO2 at sea level unless we change course now. While i understand the scare tactic, and may even agree with it, i have used the equations of Millero et al. espoused in Elsevier and Academic Press texts… ‘CO2 in seawater; equilibrium, kinetics, isotopes’ by Richard E. Zeebe and Dieter Wolf-Gladrow. published by Elsevier in 2001. These equations are reproducible and included here in each of these three excel files. While i have heard of pH dropping by measurement, there is some confusion between the four pH methods of measuring pH. I have used the SeaWater Scale (SWS) often used by oceanographers which normalizes for fluorine and sulphur in ocean water and it along with the Total scale, measure about .1 pH lower than the free and fourth scale, and are about .01 pH units different from each other. In the theory at least, the minimum pH in the whole ocean is calculated over 60 years under a very CO2 stressed system, where in the do nothing approach the level approaches 512 ppm at sea level by 2050, higher indoors and approaching toxic to human levels of 1000 ppm indoors. In reality, there may be some local drops that are temporary, or more pronounced like in the saturated southern ocean.
It is claimed that the calcite will completely disappear and that ocean buffering of pH would come to a halt and all the ocean sea life would die. Not true until next century, but the situation is not static, and change is occuring, witness Obama and his administration, Europe and India and China.
It turns out that there is a limit, but it is further in the future than that. we have an estimated reservoir of 2750 GT-Carbon of CaCO3 and it needs refining. What they forgot or couldn’t calculate was the amount of precipitation of calcium carbonate which subsequently dissolves due to the carbonic acid and acts as an acid buffer, along with Borate, which by itself, it would prevent the pH from seriously changing by 2050… after that, or rather, before that we have to be careful. These equations are open to the public and reproducible in a format like mine, or a similar format by someone who knows chemistry, math and computers…. a tall order for most people. I have also used estimates of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) and Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) which both contribute towards precipitation levels via RFgamma and the gamma ratio or rain ratio which is a ratio of the amount of CaCO3 that precipates in Mol/kg of seawater to Mol/kg of DOC and POC that are present. I have used the estimates of DOC and POC elucidated in Marine Biogeochemistry by Susan Libe published in 2009 by Elsevier and Academic Press. There is more information there also about calcite and Calcium Carbonate reservoirs and chemistry.
I have extended the formulas and equations of Zeebe et al, and found an iterative solution to the six standard oceanic unknowns solving from parial pressure or fugacity of CO2 in the ocean. These unknowns solved for include pH, total alkalinity, Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) and other unknowns like bicarbonate concentration in mol/kg and carbonate ion in mol/kg of seawater at depth (pressure).
One of the real threats is methane release to the atmosphere, which by itself will cause a 0.583 degree temperature increase by 2050 over 1990, regardless of which of the three scenarios we use.
In scenario 1: Do nothing 2009: The minimum pH in shallow water, the top 279 metres of the ocean (the region most critical to fish and ocean life) it would be about a pH of 8.025, over 60 years, and is unlikely in this period to drop below this.
We would dissolve about 2 GT-Carbon of Calcium Carbonate per year annually with a total reservoir of 2751 GT-C of calcite, which is more important to sea life than aragonite the other major form of calcium carbonate which is more soluble than calcite. In geological history we have had alternating predominantly calcite or aragonite seas.
The CO2 ppm rises to 512 ppm by 2050 and the total estimated temperature rise is : 1.92 degrees Celcius and the total amount of calcite that would be dissolved since 1990 would be about 153.5 GT-Carbon of CaCO3 of the total available of 2751 GT – C of CaCO3.
In Scenario 2: Bill C-311, the temperature total temperature increase will be: 1.24 degrees celcius. Still significant, but the CO2 level will be 431 ppm at sea level, below James Hansen’s critical 450 ppm. He may know something i don’t, i am waiting to hear back from him on that! I understand he is busy. Joe Romm’s book Hell or Highwater is recommended to see the politics we are up against or Elizabeth May’s new book, ‘Lack of Confidence’ which should at this juncture be recommended. Under scenario 2, the total calcite consumed since 1990 is about 145.75 GT- Carbon of CaCO3 (estimated).
In Scenario 3: 350 ppm by 2050, the total calcite consumed by 2050 would be about 136 GT-Carbon, thus conserving a crucial resource and essential for the conservation in the future of ocean life and the web of life of the entire planet. The total temperature change due to CO2 would decrease, but there is still methane increases to consider. They will be lowest under this scenario, but conservatively we still forecast an increase of .547 degrees, mostly due to the ongoing momentum of the melting permafrost in the arctic and siberia and all anthropogenic and natural off gasing of methane from wetland marshes and bogs around the world.
See http://ecen.com/eee55/eee55e/growth_of%20methane_concentration_in_atmosp…
also:
http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=18266755
Wilson et al, in their paper about fish excrement, are also a source of 1.4 Petagrams of calcite per annum in shallow waters, which is included in the calculations…..
In this last scenario, we start REMOVING CO2 from the atmosphere to the tune of 12.13 GT-C of CO2 average between 2017 and 2050 , which will accomplish the task of bringing us back to 350 ppm by 2050, if we remove less than this, but enough, it could be by 2070.
I hope we move in this direction, solutions are availble, and the situation is changing inspite of the negative politics. People know we MUST move in this 350 direction, it has become song, metaphor and translated into many other languages, just like Avaaz is really influencing things…
We should act now on Bill c-311, but expect to revise it , at the latest by 2017,
but right at this moment the public is concerned about H1N1 viruses …..lets hope the 36,000 deaths due to influenza in the US per year, aren’t approached by this one.
best regards,
Richard Belshaw
AGU,JASA,AAAS,IEEE
Projections of CO2, including ocean chemistry, and methane in a publicly understandable manner.
Projections of CO2, including ocean chemistry, and methane in a publicly understandable manner.
There are three different scenarios that i consider here. The do nothing approach, much akin to the Harper approach of 20% below 2006 levels by 2020 and convince California not to change the economic climate towards supporting Earths climate and its sustainability; the 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 being adopted possibly by bill c311 and possibly by copenhagen in October; thirdly i consider the case where we try to get back to 350 ppm levels of CO2 at ground level by 2050 or move in that direction, perhaps reaching it by 2070.
The three excel files that show these options are in the following downloadable zip files:
http://richardbelshaw.greenparty.ca/oceanconchdonothing2009.zip
http://richardbelshaw.greenparty.ca/oceanconchbillc311.zip
http://richardbelshaw.greenparty.ca/oceanconch350.zip
The summary sections in the top left are relatively self explanatory to anyone who is reasonably adept with spreadsheets or numbers and ratios and trends.
The summary sections are in the top left and you can freely compare all three scenarios.
I will make some highlight comparisons here.
James Hansen who provoked the beginning of http://www.350.org by Bill McKibbon, whose aims i generally support though i am sceptical of some of there rhetoric and the ability of the world to adapt sufficiently with low tech to achieve the aim of 350 ppm of CO2 at sea level, though i dearly wish we will move towards that direction but feel we will need high tech, like Ted Sargents nanotechnology and Richard Nebels/Robert Bussards Polywell Fusion design using Boron or Lithium and no radioactivity from scattered excess neutrons like at ITER and the tokamuk design purporting to use Tritium/Deuterium to achieve Helium by products through a program that is underfunded and unrealistic and radioactive. I prefer to think about Pickens wind farm attempt or perhaps even temporarily traditional uranium fission (horror of horrors…) instead of coal, oil, gas (in that order) especially in the wake of peak oil.
Highlights….
1) James Hansen has claimed that … from supercomputer models at Goddard Climate Centre that no public person can be allowed to really look at or participate in unless they are a member of the scientific elite, that ocean acidification will occur around 450 ppm of CO2 at sea level unless we change course now. While i understand the scare tactic, and may even agree with it, i have used the equations of Millero et al. espoused in Elsevier and Academic Press texts… ‘CO2 in seawater; equilibrium, kinetics, isotopes’ by Richard E. Zeebe and Dieter Wolf-Gladrow. published by Elsevier in 2001. These equations are reproducible and included here in each of these three excel files. While i have heard of pH dropping by measurement, there is some confusion between the four pH methods of measuring pH. I have used the SeaWater Scale (SWS) often used by oceanographers which normalizes for fluorine and sulphur in ocean water and it along with the Total scale, measure about .1 pH lower than the free and fourth scale, and are about .01 pH units different from each other. In the theory at least, the minimum pH in the whole ocean is calculated over 60 years under a very CO2 stressed system, where in the do nothing approach the level approaches 512 ppm at sea level by 2050, higher indoors and approaching toxic to human levels of 1000 ppm indoors. In reality, there may be some local drops that are temporary, or more pronounced like in the saturated southern ocean.
It is claimed that the calcite will completely disappear and that ocean buffering of pH would come to a halt and all the ocean sea life would die. Not true until next century, but the situation is not static, and change is occuring, witness Obama and his administration, Europe and India and China.
It turns out that there is a limit, but it is further in the future than that. we have an estimated reservoir of 2750 GT-Carbon of CaCO3 and it needs refining. What they forgot or couldn’t calculate was the amount of precipitation of calcium carbonate which subsequently dissolves due to the carbonic acid and acts as an acid buffer, along with Borate, which by itself, it would prevent the pH from seriously changing by 2050… after that, or rather, before that we have to be careful. These equations are open to the public and reproducible in a format like mine, or a similar format by someone who knows chemistry, math and computers…. a tall order for most people. I have also used estimates of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) and Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) which both contribute towards precipitation levels via RFgamma and the gamma ratio or rain ratio which is a ratio of the amount of CaCO3 that precipates in Mol/kg of seawater to Mol/kg of DOC and POC that are present. I have used the estimates of DOC and POC elucidated in Marine Biogeochemistry by Susan Libe published in 2009 by Elsevier and Academic Press. There is more information there also about calcite and Calcium Carbonate reservoirs and chemistry.
I have extended the formulas and equations of Zeebe et al, and found an iterative solution to the six standard oceanic unknowns solving from parial pressure or fugacity of CO2 in the ocean. These unknowns solved for include pH, total alkalinity, Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) and other unknowns like bicarbonate concentration in mol/kg and carbonate ion in mol/kg of seawater at depth (pressure).
One of the real threats is methane release to the atmosphere, which by itself will cause a 0.583 degree temperature increase by 2050 over 1990, regardless of which of the three scenarios we use.
In scenario 1: Do nothing 2009: The minimum pH in shallow water, the top 279 metres of the ocean (the region most critical to fish and ocean life) it would be about a pH of 8.025, over 60 years, and is unlikely in this period to drop below this.
We would dissolve about 2 GT-Carbon of Calcium Carbonate per year annually with a total reservoir of 2751 GT-C of calcite, which is more important to sea life than aragonite the other major form of calcium carbonate which is more soluble than calcite. In geological history we have had alternating predominantly calcite or aragonite seas.
The CO2 ppm rises to 512 ppm by 2050 and the total estimated temperature rise is : 1.92 degrees Celcius and the total amount of calcite that would be dissolved since 1990 would be about 153.5 GT-Carbon of CaCO3 of the total available of 2751 GT – C of CaCO3.
In Scenario 2: Bill C-311, the temperature total temperature increase will be: 1.24 degrees celcius. Still significant, but the CO2 level will be 431 ppm at sea level, below James Hansen’s critical 450 ppm. He may know something i don’t, i am waiting to hear back from him on that! I understand he is busy. Joe Romm’s book Hell or Highwater is recommended to see the politics we are up against or Elizabeth May’s new book, ‘Lack of Confidence’ which should at this juncture be recommended. Under scenario 2, the total calcite consumed since 1990 is about 145.75 GT- Carbon of CaCO3 (estimated).
In Scenario 3: 350 ppm by 2050, the total calcite consumed by 2050 would be about 136 GT-Carbon, thus conserving a crucial resource and essential for the conservation in the future of ocean life and the web of life of the entire planet. The total temperature change due to CO2 would decrease, but there is still methane increases to consider. They will be lowest under this scenario, but conservatively we still forecast an increase of .547 degrees, mostly due to the ongoing momentum of the melting permafrost in the arctic and siberia and all anthropogenic and natural off gasing of methane from wetland marshes and bogs around the world.
See http://ecen.com/eee55/eee55e/growth_of%20methane_concentration_in_atmosp…
also:
http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=18266755
Wilson et al, in their paper about fish excrement, are also a source of 1.4 Petagrams of calcite per annum in shallow waters, which is included in the calculations…..
In this last scenario, we start REMOVING CO2 from the atmosphere to the tune of 12.13 GT-C of CO2 average between 2017 and 2050 , which will accomplish the task of bringing us back to 350 ppm by 2050, if we remove less than this, but enough, it could be by 2070.
I hope we move in this direction, solutions are availble, and the situation is changing inspite of the negative politics. People know we MUST move in this 350 direction, it has become song, metaphor and translated into many other languages, just like Avaaz is really influencing things…
We should act now on Bill c-311, but expect to revise it , at the latest by 2017,
but right at this moment the public is concerned about H1N1 viruses …..lets hope the 36,000 deaths due to influenza in the US per year, aren’t approached by this one.
best regards,
Richard Belshaw
AGU,JASA,AAAS,IEEE
Projections of CO2, including ocean chemistry, and methane in a publicly understandable manner.
Spirit of renewal takes over Vancouver as Liberal convention opens
April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under Liberal Media
VANCOUVER – It’s a fresh start for the Liberal Party of Canada as thousands of party faithful arrive for the 2009 Liberal Convention – the first ever held in British Columbia.
Spirit of renewal takes over Vancouver as Liberal convention opens
Spirit of renewal takes over Vancouver as Liberal convention opens
April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under Liberal Speeches
VANCOUVER – It’s a fresh start for the Liberal Party of Canada as thousands of party faithful arrive for the 2009 Liberal Convention – the first ever held in British Columbia.
Spirit of renewal takes over Vancouver as Liberal convention opens
Spirit of renewal takes over Vancouver as Liberal convention opens
April 30, 2009 by admin
Filed under Liberal Blogs
VANCOUVER – It’s a fresh start for the Liberal Party of Canada as thousands of party faithful arrive for the 2009 Liberal Convention – the first ever held in British Columbia.
Spirit of renewal takes over Vancouver as Liberal convention opens
