Can anyone help explain the current NDP polling numbers?

OK much of the current speculation about NDP cooperation (forming a coalition!?!?!?!) with the Conservatives is based on the fact that NDP seems to be low in the polls which seems to be because of Liberals strength(Greens and Conservatives haven’t changed much).  For example Ipsos Reid had the NDP at 12% with Tories ahead by 9% (39-30):
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4526

This doesn’t seem to make much sense to me (but who said politics was rational right?). 

The reason I ask, is because I don’t see how the Ignatieff branded Liberals would appeal to an NDP supporter.  Certainly a more right leaning Liberal would encourage left-Liberals to swith to NDP.  Or maybe the NDP losses support to the Liberals when the Liberals have what appears to a “strong” candidate likely of becoming PM, regardless of ideology or policy?  Perhaps most people like voting for a perceived “winner” which is why Jack would have “run for PM”???

Or maybe I’ve got my analysis wrong.  Is the NDP losing support to the Conservatives or the Greens?(Or Bloc?) Any opinions/clarification would help.

Also, I never take one poll seriously, a 5 poll rolling average provides a much more accurate reflection of the current sentiment.  The Globe and Mail used this during the last election with much success.  See a good link here:

http://paulitics.wordpress.com/poll-index/national/

             5 poll average    Last Election  Change
Cons            33.9                37.6           -3.7
Libs              30.2               26.2             4.0
NDP             16.2                18.2             -2
Green           10.5                6.8              3.7
Bloc             8.6                  10.0            -1.4

By the way, despite what I’ve posted above, shouldn’t politics be about ideas and vision rather than teasing out information from inherently flawed insessant polling?

Matthew Piggott
Kitchener Centre

Can anyone help explain the current NDP polling numbers?